Explanation of the model
This model is an essential tool to manage droughts properly. It is based on many years’ experience in different arid and semi-arid areas in Kenya, where the nomadic livestock or pastoral production system dominates. The model was developed by Acacia Consultants and it has the full support of the central government. This model identifies droughts as inevitable. In other words: Droughts are not simply an assumption or risk in the logical framework, but should form a central part in the identification, planning, implementation and Evaluation&Monitoring of activities and programmes. Essential for its success is the combination of proper monitoring of activities and drought interventions. Accurate and timely earning warning is both possible and crucial. The link between information and intervention is still difficult to achieve.

Four stages and types of activities
1. Normal stage with drought preparedness activities
2. Alert or alarm stage with mitigating activities
3. Emergency stage with relief measures
4. Recovery stage with reconstruction activities.

For each stage and for each sector, key activities can be identified. Each sector has its own drought-related or sensitive components that need to be in place once a drought becomes imminent. In this way, the model presents a ‘development-relief -rehabilitation’ continuum of activities.

Different groups have different needs

The various activities should focus closely at the different target groups and their specific needs during these stages. Presently, the number of destitute pastoral communities in these drylands increases, but their linkages with the pastoral production system decrease. In particular, the needs of these destitute communities are a special concern. The transitions from one stage of the cycle into the other also have a gender dimension that needs to be considered. In the alert stage, tensions between men and women increase. In most cases, the security situation for women deteriorates. Especially relief activities are often badly targeted at the real needs of the community. Improper organisation of food distribution and a very poor mismatch between relief supply and needs take a heavy toll on the women. Water shortage is often a bigger problem than food shortage, yet food is offered that requires preparation with ample water. The concentration of food distribution in a limited number of places often demands huge long trekking distances for a seriously weakened population.

Need for flexible programmes and budgets

Another aspect is the flexibility of the programme and in particular the budgetary flexibility between development and relief budgets. Contingency planning including an estimation of funds should be part and parcel of the programme. Proper investments in stage 1 and 2 prevent that the emergency stage erupts suddenly and violently. More resources in the mitigation stage prevent the loss of valuable assets and progress in the emergency stage. Prevention is more effective than the cure. Relief measures are very costly. Thus, the efficiency and effectiveness of resources are higher in these stages than in the emergency stage. But in reality, the bulk of donor funding goes to the emergency stage, less to the normal stage and hardly anything to the alert and recovery stage.

Role of state institutions

The linkages between the district and national levels in the state system, essential for a reliable flow of information and timely decision making for proper actions, thus far are weak. The Kenyan government is in the process of establishing the National Drought Management Secretariat to ensure an operational body that links district, provincial and national levels.

Drought information

Generally, the role of Rapid Assessment Teams to assess the extent and intensity of droughts, is viewed with caution, as it may easily lead to delay in implementation. But this mechanism is linked with the past, when drought data often were politically misused. Its role to check drought conditions should be minimised in view of improved credibility of monitoring data. It is therefore essential to ensure the neutral and autonomous character of Early Warning Systems, increasing the trust of donors in the drought monitoring system.

Use of the Model

• This model offers an easy tool to assess the current programmes of organisations operating in drylands. Many organisations implement elements of different stages, but do their programmes cover all stages or are they biased to specific stages? It is strongly advised to subscribe to this model and to assess the ongoing programmes accordingly. There is a wealth of case studies and lessons learned that can be used in this assessment. It is also recommended that each partner builds up its own documentation of lessons learned and in this way helps to maintain its institutional memory.
  
• Contingency planning cannot be made operational in the absence of adequate financial mechanisms, such as rapid response funds. For each organisation, it is crucial to have a clear agreement (memorandum of understanding) with their funding agencies on the proper management and the rapid deployment of these funds in case of emergencies.
  
• In view of decentralisation processes in many countries, governments increasingly acknowledge the role and capacity of NGOs, who may provide for the checks and balances at district and national level. At district level, NGOs can stimulate contingency planning as part of overall planning. In some districts in Kenya, NGOs already collaborate with District Steering Groups and District Planning Units. Parallel to these processes, lobby and advocacy is needed to institutionalise this drought cycle model and to strengthen the response mechanisms of the state.
  
• In view of the current focus of many donors on relief activities, there is an urgent need for a change in current donor behaviour. Which are the possibilities to influence policy decisions of major donors?
  
• Consultation with communities is required to overcome the serious mismatch between (relief) aid and the needs of the target group. Communities are quite capable to express their needs and experiences and they are able to identify appropriate interventions in all the different stages of the drought cycle. This consultation needs to be gender and target group specific. A constant dialogue and reflection with the communities are the crucial instruments for external agencies. Food distribution should be more decentralised; also the provision of water should be considered as an element of an emergency operation.
  
• This drought cycle model can also be used for those areas, where changes in land use have occurred over the last decades. Increased farming has increased the vulnerability for droughts. Each specific area has its own physical properties that determine the risks of these land use changes and the range of activities that fit into each of the stages of the drought cycle.